How much does it cost to eat well?
The Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP) monitors a basket of household goods which is calls the "Thrifty Healthy Food Basket", which it says reflects the most affordable amount to eat a healthy diet.

This is separate to StatsSA's basket used to calculate food price inflation, and is designed to realistically reflect the needs and capabilities of a four-person lower-income household.

The cost of a monthly shop has risen by a third in just five years
The cost of BFAP's basket has risen by a staggering amount - almost a third - in just three years. That's almost R1 000 at a time when wage increases have been minimal.

The cost of food has been rising faster than the All Items measure of Consumer Price Inflation (CPI) for almost the whole of the last five years.

Using data from StatsSA's Consumer Price Index (CPI) and BFAP's Food Inflation Briefs we've put together this recap of the underlying causes.

2021: Pandemic pressures and weather challenges
In December 2021, food price inflation was at 5.93%, driven largely by meat (8.63%) and oils (20.77%). According to BFAP, poultry - a key protein source - became more expensive across most cuts.

The Thrifty Healthy Food Basket, BFAP’s measure of the cost of a balanced diet for a family of four, also rose notably over the year. BFAP described this basket as “a nutritionally balanced combination of 26 food items from all food groups,” offering a more accurate reflection of costs for low-income households than the standard CPI basket.

Major inflation drivers included the impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19, heavy rainfall that threatened crop production, limited livestock supply, and surging international oilseed prices. Oils and fats remained the most significant contributors to overall food inflation.

2022: Global shocks intensify
By April 2022, food inflation had continued to rise even faster than in the previous year, as the invasion of Ukraine drove up the cost of transport and oils and fats once again - although these would only peak in August. Products that saw particularly sharp price growth included pasta, samp, various beef cuts, pork chops, chicken portions, frozen fish, and several types of fresh produce.

The Thrifty Healthy Food Basket also became more expensive, reflecting a notable increase from the previous year. BFAP linked this escalation to major global disruptions, including China’s zero-COVID policy and India’s restriction on wheat exports. Locally, outbreaks of foot-and-mouth disease and elevated feed prices limited cattle and poultry slaughter rates, which added further pressure to meat prices.

2023: The energy and exchange rate squeeze
By March 2023, food inflation had reached its highest level, with the Thrifty Healthy Food Basket showing a substantial year-on-year increase. Basic staples such as maize meal, beef, onions, and potatoes recorded some of the most significant price hikes. Cereal products and vegetables both peaked at over 20% increases year-on-year.

BFAP explained that “the weak exchange rate of the rand in the first quarter of 2023 prevented lower international grain and oilseed prices from fully reflecting in the domestic market.” Ongoing load-shedding, high fuel prices, and escalating logistics costs further added pressure throughout the value chain.

Livestock and dairy producers faced additional strain due to lower milk production and reduced consumer demand. Beef exports were also disrupted by biosecurity challenges, which suppressed farmgate prices even as production costs continued to climb.